GOVERNOR'S RACE NORTHERN EXPOSURE?

blog #8
"Effect of opposition research on  campaign for governor"


Took some time off.
Time to catch up on events.
Less than four weeks to go !


Who would have believed that the Republican nominee would blow
an eighteen point lead ?
Some in the GOP are disheartened that LePage could possibly lose.
But, let us not forget that the issues and the future of Maine are what really
counts here-regardless of personal political campaign mistakes or gaffes 
related to personality.


However, everybody knows opposition researchers are spending a lot of 
time on the Maine Republican  candidate for governor. 
The question is- will opposition research affect the outcome of the
governor's race?


Recently the press  investigated and revealed the LePages' arrangements for
paying property taxes and college tuitions in Florida.
This information was supplied to the press by opponents of LePage.
Perhaps just a "tempest in a teapot," but we hear there may be more to come-
this time  from north of the border.


In a memo from (my old friend) Washington political strategic campaign 
consultant Brent  Littlefield to LePage supporters, which I  received, he states:
"There are many more attack lines floating across the state and we
will address them as needed.
If you have any information to share on what you are hearing please
email"...
Apparently, Littlefield knows that there are forces pouring over LePage's
bio to uncover anything they can from his personal history, including his
time in Canada.
That's how this opposition research game is played.


If  questions are raised-(and they have started in online comments to
current political news stories)- LePage and his advisers need to be
ready to respond in convincing fashion.
Political campaigns must be able to anticipate attacks and be prepared
to rebut them.


People are weary of the politics of personal destruction-so just
give a simple and honest explanation to any questions raised
concerning the bio.


The LePage campaign's worst nightmare would be a major" tear" in
the fabric of the "American Dream" theme which has been responsible
for creating his wonderful story.


The attacks on LePage will be relentless from now to Nov. 2.
The LePage campaign needs to protect aggressively against any further damage.
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As I originally predicted a few weeks ago in this column-it is going to
be close. Two or three points. 
Unless LePage suffers some more serious hits,
I don't think LePage and Mitchell will have any large moves.
Cutler, as an alternative to LePage and Mitchell, will increase his support 
to around 20% (or more) and Moody will draw up to 10%.
That leaves 70% or less to be split between LePage and Mitchell.
36% guarantees a win. (Less if Cutler exceeds 20%-and he could).


The closing election framework is now forming.
Mitchell is taking advantage of LePage's mistakes by trying to paint
him as unfit for office.
She is enjoying a "Clinton" bounce from the former President's visit and
is back in the ball game because of the latest poll.
Democrats are beginning to think she could win after all-and some 
are "coming home."
She needs to work more on her own image and has begun to do so with the
latest, very effective, "family" ad.
Mitchell's attack ad on education against LePage is unfair but effective.


LePage's best ad demonstrates his best hope.
Mitchell is shown saying over and over, "fed up with taxes-now what
does that mean?"
LePage needs to concentrate on  identifying Mitchell's positions that are
contrary to the voters wishes- that she "doesn't get it," and the fact polls now
show that 60% of Mainers  feel "the state is going in the wrong direction."
LePage's first ads on his background and "the American Dream" should
be repeated.
The ad that he delivers himself, looking off camera, is not effective.
He basically tells people if they don't agree with him-don't vote for him.
O.K. with the core- but not the rest of voters that he needs.


LePage's core support remains, with many new voters who registered
to vote for him in the Primary anxious to vote for him again on Nov. 2.
The status quo is no longer acceptable, and unfortunately for the long-
serving"Libby," she represents the status quo.
I really believe, that if this wasn't such an unusual election all over the
country, Mitchell's career as a public servant, Speaker of the House,
President of the Senate, would be enough to make her the first female 
Governor of Maine.
Timing is everything and unfortunately for "Libby" this election cycle
is bad timing for veteran democrats with a long record of incumbency.




Cutler will begin to make the case more strongly that he is the only viable
"choice between two extremes" represented by the conservative and
 liberal nominees of the political parties.
He is not out of it yet, as people search for an alternative, and at the very 
least his final vote will determine the winner between LePage and Mitchell.
Cutler will move up considerably in the next poll, and many independents
may break to him at the end.


Now that every vote becomes important to the Republican nominee, 
Moody becomes more of a factor by peeling away a small amount of
LePage's support.


Scott is a non-factor.


The most startling part of the last poll was the 26% "undecided."
That clearly represented the LePage deterioration of support -as many
apparently disappointed by his performance- moved to the sidelines.


The political math still favors LePage, (unless he  suffers a
knock-out punch) but this race has gone from a"LePage
lock" to "too close to call."
It could even become a three-way race in the final weekend.


Across the country 2010 is going to be an election year for the history books.


                                                  -0-


Don Roberts
Augusta