HERE COMES CUTLER

Blog #9
"Bad week for Mitchell, good week for Cutler, LePage hangs on"

Two weeks to go.

Ten days ago in my last blog, I predicted that Cutler would surge
to 20 points or better in the next poll.
It happened.
Then we said this could be a three way race by the final weekend.
Probably correct.

In an editorial reminiscent of the Longley upset election of many
years ago, the Bangor Daily News has endorsed Cutler.
It was in a similar race to this one, that the BDN endorsement
lifted an independent candidate to credibility status and made
Longley a last minute choice to the party nominees.
It is anticipated that the Maine Today papers in Portland,
Augusta and Waterville will follow suit by endorsing Cutler.

It was a bad week for Libby Mitchell.
She was "busted" with the introduction of the picture showing
her foolishly holding a photo of President Bush entitled
"international terrorist."
It was not entirely fair, given the circumstances and environment
in which the picture was taken, but the Republicans are playing
"hard ball" this time around.

The big difference in this year's election is that the Republicans have
finally taken the gloves off and no longer roll over and play dead.
With help from Senator Susan Collin's office, Lance Dutson was
dispatched some time ago to save Paul LePage's faltering campaign.
He and the new party executive director Christie-Lee McNally
have teamed up with new party chairman Charlie Webster to go
on the offensive.
Throw the National Republican Governors Association and the
RNC into the mix-and  Maine Republicans finally have the
"stuff" to win.

Mitchell has been put completely on the defensive, and this week
thanks to strong TV advertising from LePage , a Cutler surge, and
mistakes of her own, may be teetering on the brink of elimination.
She is not making her case and it is getting late.

It may come down to whether or not Cutler has the time or
the "charisma" to close the gap with defecting Mitchell supporters
and independents.

There are three debates remaining , one each on channels 6,8,13,
so anything can happen. LePage is vulnerable in those debates.

As I have stated here before-on the issues- LePage wins.
However, Cutler is in position to successfully make the case to
undecideds that Mitchell is a failure and too far left, while
LePage is an ultra-conservative, too far right.
The idea that Cutler represents the alternative to two extremes
is palpable and is resonating.

The problem for Cutler is that on the issues-it is difficult to
distinguish him from Mitchell.
In answering questions he has positioned himself pretty close
to that of the Democrat candidate.
He has refused to take taxes off the table.
He has said that he voted for the tax reform that would have
raised sales taxes on 102 additional services, and was over-
turned by the voters in referendum.
He has said he not only voted for "gay marriage," but that
he will work hard to bring it back.
More legislation that was rejected by the voters in referendum.

So, Cutler may be qualified by intellect and worldly experience.
However, his issue positions along with  personal financial support
in the last election for Obama and Pingree  and extensive service in
Democrat administrations, make him suspect as being another liberal
democrat.

I have had some interesting personal experiences during this
long political campaign.
It all started with an assignment as political consultant/campaign
launch manager for Paul LePage in the fall of 2009.

I worked with Paul on strategy, advertising, and helped write
positions on all of the issues.
Positions that he agrees with and uses today.

During the time I spent with him I was exposed to his strengths:
conviction, persistence and leadership qualities- as demonstrated
by his success as Mayor of Waterville.

I also learned that like all of us-he had some flaws.
His decisiveness can sometimes be a weakness, causing him
to find it difficult to listen and take advice from others.
LePage is stubborn, sometimes to a fault, and his experience
during  adolescent years has made him angry.
His early fight for survival put him in a defensive mode,
quick to react and sometimes stretching veracity to defend
himself. Probably exactly what he had to do on the streets
of Lewiston.
He tends to hold grudges, and finds it very difficult to compromise.

But, ask his best friends in Waterville, Charlie Gaunce of Central
Maine Motors, and John Fortier of State Farm Insurance, and they
will tell you that he is the guy they would follow into the "jaws of
hell."Many others agree.

I have also had extensive conversations with Eliot Cutler,
who depends heavily on the advice of his campaign manager,
Ted O'Meara.

Cutler is impressive.
Successful, confident, articulate.
His childhood was much more privileged than LePage's.
His education is impressive.
There is no question that he is qualified to be Governor.

His greatest strength may be that with his experience and
world-wide connections he might be able to bring some
new trade and jobs to Maine.

His weakness is that a "populist" he is not.
He believes in government at a time when voters do not.

I think that this election for governor comes down to a
very difficult choice.

Here's how I see it.
If you believe the issues are what counts, no tax increases,
less government, you will vote for
LePage and hope that he will learn to listen more, surround
himself with great people and advisors, and find that at
the Legislature "compromise" is not a dirty word but some-
times a necessity for accomplishment.

It is time for a clean sweep, a real chance at change for
Maine, a state that has sunk to the bottom under 30 years
of Democrat control.

Despite our reservations and all his faults and flaws-
Paul LePage deserves that chance.

Don Roberts
Augusta