Blog # 6
"CONGRESSIONAL SEATS AND MAINE SENATE IN PLAY"
Only seven weeks to go and the momentum is building.
It begins to seem possible that Maine Republicans can
score the biggest victory in decades.
Since I am trained to do political polls, and have done
many myself, I am a believer.
Paul LePage is pulling away and appears destined to be
our next governor.
Libby Mitchell continues to disappoint her base with
nascent political strategies-like dodging the debates.
As for the leading independent, Kay Rand told me earlier
it was Eliot Cutler's "to lose."
He seems to be well on his way to doing that.
I don't know if even a "smoking gun" could derail
LePage now (the possibility of one always exists.)
After learning that LePage is going to
make himself a target by visiting the state house
press corps after unveiling his "Plan" at stops in Bangor
and Portland, I question the wisdom of those unnecessary
moves with a 14 point lead.
We'll just have to hold our collective breath.
Last year, this veteran marketing man (me), saw the power
of the LePage story and political message.
The press has provided the free platform for the story and
message, and the national anti-incumbency mood across the
country led by the "tea party movement"has done the rest.
The latest poll from Public Policy Polling ( a North Carolina
firm favored by the Democrats) contains some tidbits worthy
of note.
Behind the big LePage lead are some interesting cross-
tabs:
*The President's job performance is a negative 51-44% in Maine.
*Maine voters oppose Obama health care 50-41%.
*Governor Baldacci's approval rating as he leaves is now 31%.
*Libby Mitchell's favorability rating is only 34%.
*72% of those finding Mitchell favorable listed themselves -liberal.
*76% of those finding LePage favorable listed themselves- conservative.
*LePage leads with men 50-23% over Mitchell, and by 1 with women.
*LePage gets 75% of Republicans, Mitchell only 61% of Democrats.
*Independents are strongly for LePage-with 12 % of voters undecided.
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What Maine Republicans may be missing is the best chance in
decades to recapture our two congressional districts.
I agree with Robert Shaffer on "As Maine Goes" that both seats,
based on the PPP poll, are in play.
In the first district, where I reside, Chellie Pingree, a more liberal
congressman than even Tom Allen, gets only a 40-39 approval rating
after her first term.
Pingree is vulnerable and would be a definite loser if the district wasn't
heavily democrat.
Dean Scontras, who has lacked name recognition and money, is closing
the gap at 47-38% with 15% still undecided.
The key here is the Independents and undecideds who don't know
Scontras yet.
Rudi Giuliani and Mitt Romney's endorsements should help bring him
some attention,
If the undecideds break to Scontras at the end, as Shaffer's thesis suggests,
then Scontras could pull the upset.
In the second district, Jason Levesque trails incumbent Mike Michaud by
only seven points 45-38%.
Michaud actually has a 41-39% disapproval rating.
Levesque suffers from the same problems as Scontras, lack of name
recognition and funding.
If Republicans locally and nationally will become interested in these two
congressional races and provide financial support-Scontras and Levesque
can ride the wave with LePage and pull off major upsets.
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Back to the state house for our close...
The Maine Senate is in play.
Currently 20-15 Democrat-a shift of only three seats would give Republicans
control 18-17.
Senate seats in Hancock, Aroostook, Androscoggin and Kennebec counties
could be the keys for possible pickups leading to a Republican Senate.
In my district (#24) in Kennebec County, I am working on a classic race.
Republican Mayor of Augusta Roger Katz is challenging Democrat
Representative Patsy Crockett, Senator Libby Mitchell's hand picked choice
to succeed her.
Katz is the son of the revered late Republican Senate President Bennett Katz,
and I predict will ride his tremendous personal popularity as Augusta Mayor
to the Senate.
Katz was "born to lead."
The Party even believes that they could gain control of the House.
That would be a tall order however-with Democrats in control now
94-55-1.
Not impossible though with a 20 seat change to Republicans.
That would make it 75-74-1 for Republicans.
Josh Tardy, House Minority Leader, who has been the recipient of crushing
defeats for the party during his tenure, may finally reap his reward on his
way out the door.
Sources report that he is predicting 80 seats for the Republicans.
A personal opinion-unless individual candidates are running better local
campaigns than they are in my area-this won't happen.
Republicans still need to learn how to define their opponent and how
to contrast themselves with the positions of their adversary.
In simple terms-tell the people why they should vote for you instead
of your opponent.
That is the only way to win-especially if you are trying to unseat an
incumbent.
A perfect example is in my Legislative District #56.
The incumbent Democrat candidate has just stated in an interview
published in the Kennebec Journal that she would- favor increasing
sales taxes, and taxes on alcohol.
Then she states "the tax reform bill rejected by referendum would have
helped Mainers."
There it is-ball game-if you know how to use it.
Voters rejected the tax reform bill 61-39%, and previously rejected increasing
taxes on beer and wine.
Of course you can still follow the old advice that was given Republican
candidates-
"don't even mention your opponent by name."
-0-
Don Roberts
Augusta
Addendum: Posted at 7pm, September 13.
Here we go again.
My worst fears, which were described in my earlier post (above), have been
realized by the news events of the day.
Who the hell advised LePage to do this ? - or is he doing it all "his way"
again.
The timing couldn't have been worse.
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