DIFFERENT KIND OF GOVERNOR

Blog # 11
"Joie de vivre!"


The voters of Maine are about to elect the next Governor on the basis
of the critical issues that face us instead of personalities or newspaper
endorsements.
That is good!


Since I had the good fortune and experience in the fall of last year to
help Paul LePage put together his early campaign, perhaps I can
provide some personal insight.


I have always felt that LePage is right on the issues, at least on those
that I consider most critical.
Helping him write his original issue positions, I found that we agreed
on: a new public-private partnership with business to create jobs, less
onerous regulations, no new taxes, smaller government, and traditional values.


LePage is a product of his environment and his childhood was violent.
One of eighteen children, he was abandoned to live on the streets of a tough
section of Lewiston.
It was there that he learned harsh lessons molding his character and
personality.
He learned to be "a street fighter- he had no choice.


That childhood experience may have produced a veneer that makes him
appear rough to some, but check out the compassionate side of this man.
What he has done for his family, his adoption of a needy Jamacian boy,
what he has done for youth organizations and the less fortunate in his
community of Waterville.


Ask Charlie Gaunce at Central Maine Motors, John Fortier at State
Farm, and the many others-who are such believers in Paul's leadership
qualities that they would follow him "through the gates of hell."


The positive lessons learned by LePage from Lincoln Street in
Lewiston are courage in the face of adversity, and the will to survive by
never giving up.
These are the qualities that have brought him success as Mayor of Waterville,
General Manager of Marden's, and gave him the perseverance to earn an
excellent education.


LePage is no danger to anyone- except maybe the liberal politicians who 
have run our state for too long.
A true conservative-he understands business at a time when Maine badly
needs jobs.


I am glad that  since I worked with him last year, Paul is now listening 
to campaign advice which has put him in a position to win.


I am happy to give him my endorsement and my vote on Tuesday, Nov. 2.
Maine will have a "different kind of governor" and that is what we need.


Paul LePage may have made some personal political mistakes in this
campaign- but he is still that same "kid from the streets of Lewiston,"
who has grown and earned his chance to serve the state he loves.


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


In my previous blog I said that we were lucky to have excellent candidates,
all of whom are qualified to be Governor.


Libby Mitchell
A wonderful career in government and politics.
She has achieved distinction as the only woman to serve Maine as both
President of the Senate and Speaker of the House.
Mitchell is correct when she says that she has been a fighter for the people.
Especially those people less fortunate than many of us.
She has also been a true champion for education.


Mitchell, in any other election would have been the odds-on favorite.
Unfortunately for her- 60% of Maine and national voters feel we are
in serious trouble and headed in the wrong direction.
So she is seen as part of the problem rather than part of the solution
at a time when everyone is "mad as hell."
She has been unable to make the case for her record and policies,
so may be facing an ignominious finish to her career.
Even though I have disagreed with Mitchell over the years on just about
every issue except maybe education, I must admit a slight twinge of 
empathy for her situation.
Nobody should question her hard work and dedication to the causes
that she believes in.


Eliot Cutler
Cutler's world-class experience in international law and business
certainly qualify him as an executive.
He has the credentials and he might actually be able to attain some
success in attracting trade and business to Maine.
He also can lay claim to a "clean campaign."
Cutler appears gubernatorial in the debates, and as a former democrat
running as an independent has attracted a large vote from that "party."


Cutler is closing fast but is unable to attract enough moderates and
conservatives away from LePage.
Independents also don't like his position on taxation along with his
background in big government at the federal level.
His positions on social issues mirror that of Mitchell.
Limited residency in Maine and a general distrust of big-time lawyers
also hurts him.
He is surging fast and probably will finish a close second.
Actually, although his non-negative approach to the campaign may
be noble-it may have cost him the election because of an unwillingness
to "take LePage out."


Paul LePage
LePage qualifies for Governor because of his highly successful experience
in municipal government and business.
His real life Horatio Alger story, rising from being a homeless child in
Lewiston to eventually gaining a Masters Degree in Business Administration
and success in business and politics, gives him immense appeal to all who
root for the underdog.
LePage can claim an actual record of reducing taxes and reducing the size
of the municipal government that he has run.
In addition he has a record of producing jobs in his executive position with
Marden's.
He is also a candidate who listens to the people.


LePage has apparently overcome many gaffes during this campaign.
The stars are aligned for him.
In any contest luck plays a role.
LePage runs at a time when people are looking for a "conservative"-
someone who will stop the spending and return government to the people.
This is going to be a "wave election," and that wave is going to sweep him
into the Blaine House, warts and all.
Also, the fact that Independent Eliot Cutler is taking half the democrat votes
away from nominee Libby Mitchell is that "luck" that we are talking about.


Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott
Both of these independent candidates deserve kudos and credit for their
hard work and participation.
Moody, a highly successful small businessman, especially distinguished 
himself with his studious approach to the issues and a welcome sense
of humor that led to enjoyment in the debates.
Moody could be a candidate for some role in the next administration.


Here's the call:


LePage   38%
Cutler     32%
Mitchell  25%
Moody     4%
Scott        1%


We are about to see a major anti-incumbent tsunami nationwide-
sweeping Paul LePage and many Republicans into office.


LePage's fellow franco-americans are about to celebrate a
"joie de vivre" unimagined until now, when Maine's new
governor is elected.


There will be many surprises in Maine Senate and House races.


Tuesday night may be the most fun for a conservative since
Ronald Reagan.


Don Roberts
Augusta

FINAL DEBATE QUESTIONS

*Blog #10
"Some questions linger in Governor's race"

Many questions are still out there in the race for next
Governor of Maine , while independent  candidate
Eliot Cutler  closes the gap on Paul LePage.


Allow me to play "reporter."(Moving from my usual role as
political consultant/campaign manager).
I was a TV-Radio news and sports director in Maine and the
mid-west during part of my career and general manager of a
weekly newspaper in Augusta.
It's time to have some fun again.


Q- For all candidates.
*How are you going to fund the enormous unfunded liability
in state pensions? How is the state going to pay $4.2 billion
dollars that is owed Maine's retirement system?
None of you have adequately answered that question.


Q- For Libby Mitchell.
*Given Maine's poor national rankings - how do you explain your 
statements that you have successfully  championed  small 
businesses and education?
*Don't you always get a lousy rating on "business issues" 
from the Maine Economic Research Institute?
(20% on votes favorable to Maine business-Maine
Economic Research Institute- Senate report card).
*Isn't Maine 50th in business environment? (Forbes).
*Aren't we also way down in the pack for learning results 
while spending far above the nations' average on schools?
*Does your long- time connection to the teachers unions
prevent you from embracing the idea of charter schools
in Maine that could provide choice and competition?
*Are your very liberal positions on environmental issues
and business regulations responsible for the inability
of Maine to move forward economically?
*Do you honestly believe that while holding leadership
positions as President of the Senate and Speaker of the
House that Maine has made any real progress?
*Are you consistently representing a minority point of 
view in Maine on social issues?
*What new proposals have you made that would change
the unacceptable status quo?


*Do you believe that you have listened "to the people?"


Q-For Eliot Cutler.
*What is the real difference between you and the Democrat
candidate for Governor?
*Didn't you say (on the Ray Richardson TV show) that  you 
voted  for the tax reform that established numerous new sales
taxes  before it was overturned by the people in referendum- 
and, that the people made a mistake?
*Didn't you  say if elected you would fight for the return
of "gay marriage"-another piece of legislation rejected by the
people in referendum?
*When you say you will put a stop to all this "bickering and
division" between the two political parties in Augusta-are
you forgetting  that there only two independents serving in
the Legislature ?
*Haven't you refused, like Libby Mitchell, to"take tax increases
off the table"-while calling yourself the most fiscally conservative
candidate?
*Are you really just another democrat who gave major
personal contributions to Obama and Pingree in the last
election and previously served in the Carter democrat
administration ?
*Have you ever served in any elective office?
*How much time  have you spent in Maine during your
adult life?
*While in China did you in fact represent interests that cost
jobs in America?
*Are you really "independent, just like Maine," when the
two top veteran lobbyists at the state house, (one 
for Maine's labor unions) are supporting you with
a P.A.C. (political action committee) running advertising
on your behalf?


Q-For Paul LePage
*You have called for full 55% funding for state aid to
education and full payment of $378 million dollars owed
hospitals by the state.
How do you do this while "cutting taxes?"
*Where is all this money coming from-is that why you
had to back off from your early tax cutting promises
and say "well... reduced taxes may have to wait until
my second term?"
*Would you really refuse some federal funds that go to pay
for education in Maine?
*Are special education students at risk under your plans?
*Will your policies be harmful to education, welfare
recipients and our environment?
*Is the association with the "tea party" movement
a plus or minus?
*Are you  an "extremist," especially on the
social issues?
*Do you mean it when you say many welfare recipients 
abuse the system and should be given a ticket back to 
Massachusetts?
*What did you mean when you said on the Howie
Carr radio show and in a Bill Nemitz newspaper interview-
"they are calling me a draft-dodger?"
*Does your biography indicate your Masters Degree 
from UMO back in 1975 -was obtained while
employed in  Canada?
*Finally, can you learn to control your temper and
surround yourself with great advisors who will help
you turn our state around?


That was fun-acting as a newsman-questioning all three 
leading candidates, just like old times. "Hard ball" but
"fair and balanced."
Of course, now I've got everybody p.o.'d, but there is
no reason why the candidates should not be willing to
address all the questions during a campaign.
Frankly,  softball questioning  of the candidates by the media
in the debates and forums  does not serve the voters well.
Don't be afraid to ask the tough questions-the voters
are looking for answers.
Otherwise 20+% of voters would not be undecided with
only a few days to go.


As a political "junkie" and a close observer of political
campaigns, I know there are some questions still lingering 
out there..
And, as a relatively new internet "political blogger,"
I would be less than a   reporter and
opinion giver, if I didn't pursue some of these answers
for the voters of Maine.


In my next "political blog"  on the
eve of the election-I plan to devote this column to
the POSITIVE qualities and positions of each candidate.
At that time I will give the reasons why Paul LePage,
Libby Mitchell, and Eliot Cutler are each qualified
to be the next Governor of Maine.


Unlike many disgruntled people-I believe that 
as usual  in Maine-we are blessed with fine candidates
(and that includes all five running for Governor).


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations on events since the last blog-


Currently  published poll results point to Cutler's surge
coming exclusively from Mitchell- since she dropped
while undecideds remained the same or slightly increased,
and LePage's support was unchanged.


This election, if 20+% remain undecided- is still in play.
Even if the spread between LePage and challengers Mitchell
and Cutler is 12 or 13 points, it is "not over until it's over,"
as Yogi Berra would say.


Actually there is a glaring error in the math of the latest
Critical Insights-Maine Today Media poll.
When you add: LePage  32, Mitchell 20, Cutler 19, 
Moody 5, and Scott 1: the total is 77%.
That leaves 23% undecided-not 21% as stated in the poll.
(I assume that it was a typo).
                       
So, if it is 23% and LePage has a 12 point lead over
the closest contender, a candidate that gets 13 of
the 23 points available overtakes the leader.
(That is if LePage doesn't move higher).


Conclusion: If you are going to vote for LePage
you have made your mind up.
Mitchell's support appears to be dropping.
Shawn Moody is going to pick up a couple more points.


If Eliot Cutler can get 60% of the remaining
undecideds as they break here in the final days
remaining-then the election of Nov.2  will not produce
a winner for several days thereafter.


Here's how I see it-Cutler is closing rapidly.
He now benefits from newspaper endorsements from
across the state.
First, the Bangor Daily News and a couple of weeklies.
Now, as predicted and anticipated, "Maine Today Media,"
Portland, Waterville and Augusta have endorsed Cutler.
LePage did not interview with "Maine Today" because
he believed the endorsement was "baked in the cake"
since the publisher and Cutler grew up together in
Bangor. (He changed his mind about the interview
at the last minute- but the papers said it was too late).


I believe that 1 of every 3 voters cannot be shaken
from their support of LePage.
He does not get less than 33%.
Factor in up to 10% for Moody and Scott.
That leaves 57% to be divided between Mitchell and
Cutler.
For either one  to reach 34%  they would have to beat the
other 34-23.
If these assumptions are correct- then with Mitchell apparently
fading-Cutler becomes the only remaining threat.
Cutler needs to collect the vast majority of remaining
undecideds to make it a photo finish.


I hope LePage and the Republicans are planning
a big final weekend public rally-they need it.
In the final analysis, I still think a tsunami of
national discontent will reach Maine  on election day
and save LePage.


After exploring many imperfections in all the candidates
( I have learned during this campaign that indeed we
are "all human), I again conclude that LePage is
right on the issues.


It is time for a dramatic change to the status quo,
and "nibbling at the edges" will not get the job done.
It is interesting to note that Maine Today Media
endorsements seemed to think that way on their
surprising picks of Scontras  and Levesque (two
Republican conservatives) in the congressional elections,
but not in the governor's race where the Republicans
have a great shot at victory.


I wonder if LePage's name was  written "in the book,"
while as a homeless child he lived and "fought "for survival
on the streets of Lewiston?
Perhaps there he  learned how to face and  handle the kind 
of adversity now challenging the previously "great state of
Maine" and the candidate himself.


Don Roberts
Augusta


Next weekend-why we are lucky to have good
candidates... who we endorse... and final predictions.
   

HERE COMES CUTLER

Blog #9
"Bad week for Mitchell, good week for Cutler, LePage hangs on"

Two weeks to go.

Ten days ago in my last blog, I predicted that Cutler would surge
to 20 points or better in the next poll.
It happened.
Then we said this could be a three way race by the final weekend.
Probably correct.

In an editorial reminiscent of the Longley upset election of many
years ago, the Bangor Daily News has endorsed Cutler.
It was in a similar race to this one, that the BDN endorsement
lifted an independent candidate to credibility status and made
Longley a last minute choice to the party nominees.
It is anticipated that the Maine Today papers in Portland,
Augusta and Waterville will follow suit by endorsing Cutler.

It was a bad week for Libby Mitchell.
She was "busted" with the introduction of the picture showing
her foolishly holding a photo of President Bush entitled
"international terrorist."
It was not entirely fair, given the circumstances and environment
in which the picture was taken, but the Republicans are playing
"hard ball" this time around.

The big difference in this year's election is that the Republicans have
finally taken the gloves off and no longer roll over and play dead.
With help from Senator Susan Collin's office, Lance Dutson was
dispatched some time ago to save Paul LePage's faltering campaign.
He and the new party executive director Christie-Lee McNally
have teamed up with new party chairman Charlie Webster to go
on the offensive.
Throw the National Republican Governors Association and the
RNC into the mix-and  Maine Republicans finally have the
"stuff" to win.

Mitchell has been put completely on the defensive, and this week
thanks to strong TV advertising from LePage , a Cutler surge, and
mistakes of her own, may be teetering on the brink of elimination.
She is not making her case and it is getting late.

It may come down to whether or not Cutler has the time or
the "charisma" to close the gap with defecting Mitchell supporters
and independents.

There are three debates remaining , one each on channels 6,8,13,
so anything can happen. LePage is vulnerable in those debates.

As I have stated here before-on the issues- LePage wins.
However, Cutler is in position to successfully make the case to
undecideds that Mitchell is a failure and too far left, while
LePage is an ultra-conservative, too far right.
The idea that Cutler represents the alternative to two extremes
is palpable and is resonating.

The problem for Cutler is that on the issues-it is difficult to
distinguish him from Mitchell.
In answering questions he has positioned himself pretty close
to that of the Democrat candidate.
He has refused to take taxes off the table.
He has said that he voted for the tax reform that would have
raised sales taxes on 102 additional services, and was over-
turned by the voters in referendum.
He has said he not only voted for "gay marriage," but that
he will work hard to bring it back.
More legislation that was rejected by the voters in referendum.

So, Cutler may be qualified by intellect and worldly experience.
However, his issue positions along with  personal financial support
in the last election for Obama and Pingree  and extensive service in
Democrat administrations, make him suspect as being another liberal
democrat.

I have had some interesting personal experiences during this
long political campaign.
It all started with an assignment as political consultant/campaign
launch manager for Paul LePage in the fall of 2009.

I worked with Paul on strategy, advertising, and helped write
positions on all of the issues.
Positions that he agrees with and uses today.

During the time I spent with him I was exposed to his strengths:
conviction, persistence and leadership qualities- as demonstrated
by his success as Mayor of Waterville.

I also learned that like all of us-he had some flaws.
His decisiveness can sometimes be a weakness, causing him
to find it difficult to listen and take advice from others.
LePage is stubborn, sometimes to a fault, and his experience
during  adolescent years has made him angry.
His early fight for survival put him in a defensive mode,
quick to react and sometimes stretching veracity to defend
himself. Probably exactly what he had to do on the streets
of Lewiston.
He tends to hold grudges, and finds it very difficult to compromise.

But, ask his best friends in Waterville, Charlie Gaunce of Central
Maine Motors, and John Fortier of State Farm Insurance, and they
will tell you that he is the guy they would follow into the "jaws of
hell."Many others agree.

I have also had extensive conversations with Eliot Cutler,
who depends heavily on the advice of his campaign manager,
Ted O'Meara.

Cutler is impressive.
Successful, confident, articulate.
His childhood was much more privileged than LePage's.
His education is impressive.
There is no question that he is qualified to be Governor.

His greatest strength may be that with his experience and
world-wide connections he might be able to bring some
new trade and jobs to Maine.

His weakness is that a "populist" he is not.
He believes in government at a time when voters do not.

I think that this election for governor comes down to a
very difficult choice.

Here's how I see it.
If you believe the issues are what counts, no tax increases,
less government, you will vote for
LePage and hope that he will learn to listen more, surround
himself with great people and advisors, and find that at
the Legislature "compromise" is not a dirty word but some-
times a necessity for accomplishment.

It is time for a clean sweep, a real chance at change for
Maine, a state that has sunk to the bottom under 30 years
of Democrat control.

Despite our reservations and all his faults and flaws-
Paul LePage deserves that chance.

Don Roberts
Augusta

GOVERNOR'S RACE NORTHERN EXPOSURE?

blog #8
"Effect of opposition research on  campaign for governor"


Took some time off.
Time to catch up on events.
Less than four weeks to go !


Who would have believed that the Republican nominee would blow
an eighteen point lead ?
Some in the GOP are disheartened that LePage could possibly lose.
But, let us not forget that the issues and the future of Maine are what really
counts here-regardless of personal political campaign mistakes or gaffes 
related to personality.


However, everybody knows opposition researchers are spending a lot of 
time on the Maine Republican  candidate for governor. 
The question is- will opposition research affect the outcome of the
governor's race?


Recently the press  investigated and revealed the LePages' arrangements for
paying property taxes and college tuitions in Florida.
This information was supplied to the press by opponents of LePage.
Perhaps just a "tempest in a teapot," but we hear there may be more to come-
this time  from north of the border.


In a memo from (my old friend) Washington political strategic campaign 
consultant Brent  Littlefield to LePage supporters, which I  received, he states:
"There are many more attack lines floating across the state and we
will address them as needed.
If you have any information to share on what you are hearing please
email"...
Apparently, Littlefield knows that there are forces pouring over LePage's
bio to uncover anything they can from his personal history, including his
time in Canada.
That's how this opposition research game is played.


If  questions are raised-(and they have started in online comments to
current political news stories)- LePage and his advisers need to be
ready to respond in convincing fashion.
Political campaigns must be able to anticipate attacks and be prepared
to rebut them.


People are weary of the politics of personal destruction-so just
give a simple and honest explanation to any questions raised
concerning the bio.


The LePage campaign's worst nightmare would be a major" tear" in
the fabric of the "American Dream" theme which has been responsible
for creating his wonderful story.


The attacks on LePage will be relentless from now to Nov. 2.
The LePage campaign needs to protect aggressively against any further damage.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As I originally predicted a few weeks ago in this column-it is going to
be close. Two or three points. 
Unless LePage suffers some more serious hits,
I don't think LePage and Mitchell will have any large moves.
Cutler, as an alternative to LePage and Mitchell, will increase his support 
to around 20% (or more) and Moody will draw up to 10%.
That leaves 70% or less to be split between LePage and Mitchell.
36% guarantees a win. (Less if Cutler exceeds 20%-and he could).


The closing election framework is now forming.
Mitchell is taking advantage of LePage's mistakes by trying to paint
him as unfit for office.
She is enjoying a "Clinton" bounce from the former President's visit and
is back in the ball game because of the latest poll.
Democrats are beginning to think she could win after all-and some 
are "coming home."
She needs to work more on her own image and has begun to do so with the
latest, very effective, "family" ad.
Mitchell's attack ad on education against LePage is unfair but effective.


LePage's best ad demonstrates his best hope.
Mitchell is shown saying over and over, "fed up with taxes-now what
does that mean?"
LePage needs to concentrate on  identifying Mitchell's positions that are
contrary to the voters wishes- that she "doesn't get it," and the fact polls now
show that 60% of Mainers  feel "the state is going in the wrong direction."
LePage's first ads on his background and "the American Dream" should
be repeated.
The ad that he delivers himself, looking off camera, is not effective.
He basically tells people if they don't agree with him-don't vote for him.
O.K. with the core- but not the rest of voters that he needs.


LePage's core support remains, with many new voters who registered
to vote for him in the Primary anxious to vote for him again on Nov. 2.
The status quo is no longer acceptable, and unfortunately for the long-
serving"Libby," she represents the status quo.
I really believe, that if this wasn't such an unusual election all over the
country, Mitchell's career as a public servant, Speaker of the House,
President of the Senate, would be enough to make her the first female 
Governor of Maine.
Timing is everything and unfortunately for "Libby" this election cycle
is bad timing for veteran democrats with a long record of incumbency.




Cutler will begin to make the case more strongly that he is the only viable
"choice between two extremes" represented by the conservative and
 liberal nominees of the political parties.
He is not out of it yet, as people search for an alternative, and at the very 
least his final vote will determine the winner between LePage and Mitchell.
Cutler will move up considerably in the next poll, and many independents
may break to him at the end.


Now that every vote becomes important to the Republican nominee, 
Moody becomes more of a factor by peeling away a small amount of
LePage's support.


Scott is a non-factor.


The most startling part of the last poll was the 26% "undecided."
That clearly represented the LePage deterioration of support -as many
apparently disappointed by his performance- moved to the sidelines.


The political math still favors LePage, (unless he  suffers a
knock-out punch) but this race has gone from a"LePage
lock" to "too close to call."
It could even become a three-way race in the final weekend.


Across the country 2010 is going to be an election year for the history books.


                                                  -0-


Don Roberts
Augusta