"blog # 7
"Even bull-shit is o.k. now!"
Pity poor radio/tv talk show host Ray Richardson.
He has committed the cardinal sin of criticizing Paul LePage.
His frustration was palatable as he confessed that he had actually
weeped after becoming the recipient of LePage supporters rage.
Richardson, a conservative Republican talk show host and supporter
of LePage for Governor , called the candidate out for his use of swear
words in press conferences and seeming lack of candor later.
The result was a deluge of invective showered on Richardson by
callers.
We know exactly how Richardson feels.
The whole Richardson-LePage dust-up goes to the heart of this
year's election where the new phrase is "politics unusual."
Here in Maine and throughout the nation-voters are so enraged
that no mis-step, no revelation, no conduct unbecoming, is going
to affect their support for a new, non-incumbent, anti-government
candidate.
Richardson's experience with LePage supporters is illustrative of
what is happening in this election year.
LePage commits numerous gaffes on his coastal railway" express"
tour.
The next poll shows he gained in his lead.
It is revealed that LePage owns no property and pays no property
taxes in Maine.
His wife established Florida residency, and claimed homestead
property tax exemptions here and there, and big savings
in children's college tuitions.
Lepage lengthens his lead in a new-different poll.
LePage visits the press at the state capitol, walks out in a huff,
later swears at a reporter in Bangor.
Latest poll: Lepage leads 45 to Mitchell's 27 to Cutler's 14.
Rasmussen polling changes Maine" leaning Republican" to now
"solidly Republican."
All of this serves to identify the intense foul mood of the public-
they don't care what "their candidate" says or does, and when
he is criticized they "circle the wagons."
Paul LePage will be the next Governor of Maine.
You can clearly read it in the "tea leaves."
All Ray Richardson was trying to do is point out that after
election- LePage will have to govern.
Richardson, as much as he opposes Libby Mitchell, does not
want us to give LePage a pass on conduct unbecoming the
office.
He wants LePage held to standards of moral conduct, honesty,
truthfulness and integrity- in which he Richardson strongly
believes.
After all- these are the trademarks that have made LePage
immensely popular.
We keep trying to make the next Governor understand that
you can't just say anything you please, make things up, swear
at reporters-and make us all proud.
Richardson and the rest of us believe that LePage is the right
man at the right time because of his positions on the critical
issues, and because of his record while Mayor of Waterville.
All of that, even coupled with an 18 point lead in the
polls, does not and should not give him a free pass to embarrass
us.
Please don't shoot the messenger, instead accept some well-
meaning advice.
This is indeed a strange political year-when none of the usual
rules apply.
But, remember the real job begins after election.
Show us some "class" to go along with your determination to
make Maine better.
We cannot afford another disappointment like the one in
Washington, that has followed the last election.
Good luck in the debates.
Don Roberts
Augusta
Disclaimer:
Last year I served as political consultant/campaign launch
manager for the LePage campaign.
Since starting my new political blog a couple months ago,
I have from time to time used this forum to offer some
"tough love" advice to the candidate.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Monday, September 13, 2010
LANDSLIDE ELECTION LOOMING
Blog # 6
"CONGRESSIONAL SEATS AND MAINE SENATE IN PLAY"
Only seven weeks to go and the momentum is building.
It begins to seem possible that Maine Republicans can
score the biggest victory in decades.
Since I am trained to do political polls, and have done
many myself, I am a believer.
Paul LePage is pulling away and appears destined to be
our next governor.
Libby Mitchell continues to disappoint her base with
nascent political strategies-like dodging the debates.
As for the leading independent, Kay Rand told me earlier
it was Eliot Cutler's "to lose."
He seems to be well on his way to doing that.
I don't know if even a "smoking gun" could derail
LePage now (the possibility of one always exists.)
After learning that LePage is going to
make himself a target by visiting the state house
press corps after unveiling his "Plan" at stops in Bangor
and Portland, I question the wisdom of those unnecessary
moves with a 14 point lead.
We'll just have to hold our collective breath.
Last year, this veteran marketing man (me), saw the power
of the LePage story and political message.
The press has provided the free platform for the story and
message, and the national anti-incumbency mood across the
country led by the "tea party movement"has done the rest.
The latest poll from Public Policy Polling ( a North Carolina
firm favored by the Democrats) contains some tidbits worthy
of note.
Behind the big LePage lead are some interesting cross-
tabs:
*The President's job performance is a negative 51-44% in Maine.
*Maine voters oppose Obama health care 50-41%.
*Governor Baldacci's approval rating as he leaves is now 31%.
*Libby Mitchell's favorability rating is only 34%.
*72% of those finding Mitchell favorable listed themselves -liberal.
*76% of those finding LePage favorable listed themselves- conservative.
*LePage leads with men 50-23% over Mitchell, and by 1 with women.
*LePage gets 75% of Republicans, Mitchell only 61% of Democrats.
*Independents are strongly for LePage-with 12 % of voters undecided.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What Maine Republicans may be missing is the best chance in
decades to recapture our two congressional districts.
I agree with Robert Shaffer on "As Maine Goes" that both seats,
based on the PPP poll, are in play.
In the first district, where I reside, Chellie Pingree, a more liberal
congressman than even Tom Allen, gets only a 40-39 approval rating
after her first term.
Pingree is vulnerable and would be a definite loser if the district wasn't
heavily democrat.
Dean Scontras, who has lacked name recognition and money, is closing
the gap at 47-38% with 15% still undecided.
The key here is the Independents and undecideds who don't know
Scontras yet.
Rudi Giuliani and Mitt Romney's endorsements should help bring him
some attention,
If the undecideds break to Scontras at the end, as Shaffer's thesis suggests,
then Scontras could pull the upset.
In the second district, Jason Levesque trails incumbent Mike Michaud by
only seven points 45-38%.
Michaud actually has a 41-39% disapproval rating.
Levesque suffers from the same problems as Scontras, lack of name
recognition and funding.
If Republicans locally and nationally will become interested in these two
congressional races and provide financial support-Scontras and Levesque
can ride the wave with LePage and pull off major upsets.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Back to the state house for our close...
The Maine Senate is in play.
Currently 20-15 Democrat-a shift of only three seats would give Republicans
control 18-17.
Senate seats in Hancock, Aroostook, Androscoggin and Kennebec counties
could be the keys for possible pickups leading to a Republican Senate.
In my district (#24) in Kennebec County, I am working on a classic race.
Republican Mayor of Augusta Roger Katz is challenging Democrat
Representative Patsy Crockett, Senator Libby Mitchell's hand picked choice
to succeed her.
Katz is the son of the revered late Republican Senate President Bennett Katz,
and I predict will ride his tremendous personal popularity as Augusta Mayor
to the Senate.
Katz was "born to lead."
The Party even believes that they could gain control of the House.
That would be a tall order however-with Democrats in control now
94-55-1.
Not impossible though with a 20 seat change to Republicans.
That would make it 75-74-1 for Republicans.
Josh Tardy, House Minority Leader, who has been the recipient of crushing
defeats for the party during his tenure, may finally reap his reward on his
way out the door.
Sources report that he is predicting 80 seats for the Republicans.
A personal opinion-unless individual candidates are running better local
campaigns than they are in my area-this won't happen.
Republicans still need to learn how to define their opponent and how
to contrast themselves with the positions of their adversary.
In simple terms-tell the people why they should vote for you instead
of your opponent.
That is the only way to win-especially if you are trying to unseat an
incumbent.
A perfect example is in my Legislative District #56.
The incumbent Democrat candidate has just stated in an interview
published in the Kennebec Journal that she would- favor increasing
sales taxes, and taxes on alcohol.
Then she states "the tax reform bill rejected by referendum would have
helped Mainers."
There it is-ball game-if you know how to use it.
Voters rejected the tax reform bill 61-39%, and previously rejected increasing
taxes on beer and wine.
Of course you can still follow the old advice that was given Republican
candidates-
"don't even mention your opponent by name."
-0-
Don Roberts
Augusta
Addendum: Posted at 7pm, September 13.
Here we go again.
My worst fears, which were described in my earlier post (above), have been
realized by the news events of the day.
Who the hell advised LePage to do this ? - or is he doing it all "his way"
again.
The timing couldn't have been worse.
"CONGRESSIONAL SEATS AND MAINE SENATE IN PLAY"
Only seven weeks to go and the momentum is building.
It begins to seem possible that Maine Republicans can
score the biggest victory in decades.
Since I am trained to do political polls, and have done
many myself, I am a believer.
Paul LePage is pulling away and appears destined to be
our next governor.
Libby Mitchell continues to disappoint her base with
nascent political strategies-like dodging the debates.
As for the leading independent, Kay Rand told me earlier
it was Eliot Cutler's "to lose."
He seems to be well on his way to doing that.
I don't know if even a "smoking gun" could derail
LePage now (the possibility of one always exists.)
After learning that LePage is going to
make himself a target by visiting the state house
press corps after unveiling his "Plan" at stops in Bangor
and Portland, I question the wisdom of those unnecessary
moves with a 14 point lead.
We'll just have to hold our collective breath.
Last year, this veteran marketing man (me), saw the power
of the LePage story and political message.
The press has provided the free platform for the story and
message, and the national anti-incumbency mood across the
country led by the "tea party movement"has done the rest.
The latest poll from Public Policy Polling ( a North Carolina
firm favored by the Democrats) contains some tidbits worthy
of note.
Behind the big LePage lead are some interesting cross-
tabs:
*The President's job performance is a negative 51-44% in Maine.
*Maine voters oppose Obama health care 50-41%.
*Governor Baldacci's approval rating as he leaves is now 31%.
*Libby Mitchell's favorability rating is only 34%.
*72% of those finding Mitchell favorable listed themselves -liberal.
*76% of those finding LePage favorable listed themselves- conservative.
*LePage leads with men 50-23% over Mitchell, and by 1 with women.
*LePage gets 75% of Republicans, Mitchell only 61% of Democrats.
*Independents are strongly for LePage-with 12 % of voters undecided.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What Maine Republicans may be missing is the best chance in
decades to recapture our two congressional districts.
I agree with Robert Shaffer on "As Maine Goes" that both seats,
based on the PPP poll, are in play.
In the first district, where I reside, Chellie Pingree, a more liberal
congressman than even Tom Allen, gets only a 40-39 approval rating
after her first term.
Pingree is vulnerable and would be a definite loser if the district wasn't
heavily democrat.
Dean Scontras, who has lacked name recognition and money, is closing
the gap at 47-38% with 15% still undecided.
The key here is the Independents and undecideds who don't know
Scontras yet.
Rudi Giuliani and Mitt Romney's endorsements should help bring him
some attention,
If the undecideds break to Scontras at the end, as Shaffer's thesis suggests,
then Scontras could pull the upset.
In the second district, Jason Levesque trails incumbent Mike Michaud by
only seven points 45-38%.
Michaud actually has a 41-39% disapproval rating.
Levesque suffers from the same problems as Scontras, lack of name
recognition and funding.
If Republicans locally and nationally will become interested in these two
congressional races and provide financial support-Scontras and Levesque
can ride the wave with LePage and pull off major upsets.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Back to the state house for our close...
The Maine Senate is in play.
Currently 20-15 Democrat-a shift of only three seats would give Republicans
control 18-17.
Senate seats in Hancock, Aroostook, Androscoggin and Kennebec counties
could be the keys for possible pickups leading to a Republican Senate.
In my district (#24) in Kennebec County, I am working on a classic race.
Republican Mayor of Augusta Roger Katz is challenging Democrat
Representative Patsy Crockett, Senator Libby Mitchell's hand picked choice
to succeed her.
Katz is the son of the revered late Republican Senate President Bennett Katz,
and I predict will ride his tremendous personal popularity as Augusta Mayor
to the Senate.
Katz was "born to lead."
The Party even believes that they could gain control of the House.
That would be a tall order however-with Democrats in control now
94-55-1.
Not impossible though with a 20 seat change to Republicans.
That would make it 75-74-1 for Republicans.
Josh Tardy, House Minority Leader, who has been the recipient of crushing
defeats for the party during his tenure, may finally reap his reward on his
way out the door.
Sources report that he is predicting 80 seats for the Republicans.
A personal opinion-unless individual candidates are running better local
campaigns than they are in my area-this won't happen.
Republicans still need to learn how to define their opponent and how
to contrast themselves with the positions of their adversary.
In simple terms-tell the people why they should vote for you instead
of your opponent.
That is the only way to win-especially if you are trying to unseat an
incumbent.
A perfect example is in my Legislative District #56.
The incumbent Democrat candidate has just stated in an interview
published in the Kennebec Journal that she would- favor increasing
sales taxes, and taxes on alcohol.
Then she states "the tax reform bill rejected by referendum would have
helped Mainers."
There it is-ball game-if you know how to use it.
Voters rejected the tax reform bill 61-39%, and previously rejected increasing
taxes on beer and wine.
Of course you can still follow the old advice that was given Republican
candidates-
"don't even mention your opponent by name."
-0-
Don Roberts
Augusta
Addendum: Posted at 7pm, September 13.
Here we go again.
My worst fears, which were described in my earlier post (above), have been
realized by the news events of the day.
Who the hell advised LePage to do this ? - or is he doing it all "his way"
again.
The timing couldn't have been worse.
Monday, September 6, 2010
CONSERVATIVES IN DEFENSE OF LIBERTY- ARE NO VICE
Blog #5
"The case for conservatism"
Get ready, the political attacks describing Paul LePage, Dean Scontras
and some candidates for other offices as "extremists" are on the way.
So let's review the meaning of being a conservative.
You are a conservative if you believe:
In God and his place in American society.
You feel that the lurch to secularism is a real threat to America.
Throwing God and his laws for living out of the public square
and the classroom, out of society all together, results in relativism.
With no absolutes we become our own God.
Anarchy would follow.
We must remain responsible to the rules of a civilized society,
and accountable to the moral foundations that have made us the
greatest country on earth.
Activist judges have seized the judicial branch of government.
Defying the will of the people-they legislate from the bench.
Separation of church and state is a myth.
The constitution clearly states, "congress shall make no law
respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free
exercise thereof"...
On the subject of "gay marriage"- there should be no blurring
of the laws of God and nature.
Traditional marriage must endure-one man, one woman,
hopefully for life.
Without procreation, civilization would cease to exist.
Protection for the sanctity of marriage is called for, rather than
pandering to a minority point of view already rejected in 31
consecutive state referendums.
Value each individual equally. Do not discriminate against
anyone, love all others unconditionally, but demand the same
respect from those who would discriminate against the values
of the majority.
Abortion is "just a medical procedure" a newspaper editor
once mistakenly told me.
The supreme court erred in Roe v Wade many years ago,
a first step by an activist court leading to the slippery slope
that we continue to descend today.
When an abortion is performed for birth control purposes-
it is a decision of irresponsibility, unaccountability and cruelty.
Life begins at conception.
Nothing is more precious than life, the gift from God.
Our money should be ours (after reasonable taxes).
It does not belong to the government.
We are not entitled to anything that we do not earn for ourselves-
except the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
Most of all we don't believe in buying what we can't afford
and incurring debt that we can't pay for. We wish that our
government would adhere to the same principles before
they bankrupt this country.
We are fortunate to live in this great land of opportunity and
need only to apply ourselves in order to have a chance at
individual success.
We are, however, our brothers keeper and should help those
who legitimately cannot help themselves.
We have engaged in "class warfare" long enough.
As strong proponents of capitalism, we must stand against
the wave of "corporate bashing."
Where the hell do people think our economic opportunity
comes from ?
Our economy comes from those who take the risk, provide the
capital, and provide the jobs.
We then participate by providing the productivity to help
businesses succeed.
We can choose to excel at those jobs, become an integral part
of the companies we work for, get promoted and share in our
employers success.
Even better- in many cases we can start and succeed in our own
businesses.
65% of all jobs are created by small businesses.
Of course, there are abuses and excesses, as there always will be
in any field of human endeavor-but our capitalist system continues
to trump all other models in the world.
America is a nation of which we can and should all be proud.
Since 9/11 we face a grave threat to our survival.
For the first time our enemies dared to attack us here at home.
They lie in wait.
This is not the time to drift further to the left, to become apologists,
to succumb to the politics of appeasement and pacifism.
Liberals believe that we should spend less on defense, reduce our
armed forces, and beg those around the world who disagree with us-
to "forgive us."
Only a strong America, united in the values of our forefathers, can
withstand the threat to our country and our way of life.
"Conservatism" is the real hope for our children and grandchildren.
Our traditional values and beliefs still resonate throughout this great
land, and will by the grace of God, save us once again.
Be "extremely" proud to be a "conservative" American.
You are in the majority according to national polls-and the big
poll on November 2 is going to conclusively prove it.
Don't blow it Maine Republicans-embrace the principles that
brought the national party great victories in the past.
LePage won the primary in a landslide-because he is
"right on the issues."
Don Roberts
Augusta
"The case for conservatism"
Get ready, the political attacks describing Paul LePage, Dean Scontras
and some candidates for other offices as "extremists" are on the way.
So let's review the meaning of being a conservative.
You are a conservative if you believe:
In God and his place in American society.
You feel that the lurch to secularism is a real threat to America.
Throwing God and his laws for living out of the public square
and the classroom, out of society all together, results in relativism.
With no absolutes we become our own God.
Anarchy would follow.
We must remain responsible to the rules of a civilized society,
and accountable to the moral foundations that have made us the
greatest country on earth.
Activist judges have seized the judicial branch of government.
Defying the will of the people-they legislate from the bench.
Separation of church and state is a myth.
The constitution clearly states, "congress shall make no law
respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free
exercise thereof"...
On the subject of "gay marriage"- there should be no blurring
of the laws of God and nature.
Traditional marriage must endure-one man, one woman,
hopefully for life.
Without procreation, civilization would cease to exist.
Protection for the sanctity of marriage is called for, rather than
pandering to a minority point of view already rejected in 31
consecutive state referendums.
Value each individual equally. Do not discriminate against
anyone, love all others unconditionally, but demand the same
respect from those who would discriminate against the values
of the majority.
Abortion is "just a medical procedure" a newspaper editor
once mistakenly told me.
The supreme court erred in Roe v Wade many years ago,
a first step by an activist court leading to the slippery slope
that we continue to descend today.
When an abortion is performed for birth control purposes-
it is a decision of irresponsibility, unaccountability and cruelty.
Life begins at conception.
Nothing is more precious than life, the gift from God.
Our money should be ours (after reasonable taxes).
It does not belong to the government.
We are not entitled to anything that we do not earn for ourselves-
except the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
Most of all we don't believe in buying what we can't afford
and incurring debt that we can't pay for. We wish that our
government would adhere to the same principles before
they bankrupt this country.
We are fortunate to live in this great land of opportunity and
need only to apply ourselves in order to have a chance at
individual success.
We are, however, our brothers keeper and should help those
who legitimately cannot help themselves.
We have engaged in "class warfare" long enough.
As strong proponents of capitalism, we must stand against
the wave of "corporate bashing."
Where the hell do people think our economic opportunity
comes from ?
Our economy comes from those who take the risk, provide the
capital, and provide the jobs.
We then participate by providing the productivity to help
businesses succeed.
We can choose to excel at those jobs, become an integral part
of the companies we work for, get promoted and share in our
employers success.
Even better- in many cases we can start and succeed in our own
businesses.
65% of all jobs are created by small businesses.
Of course, there are abuses and excesses, as there always will be
in any field of human endeavor-but our capitalist system continues
to trump all other models in the world.
America is a nation of which we can and should all be proud.
Since 9/11 we face a grave threat to our survival.
For the first time our enemies dared to attack us here at home.
They lie in wait.
This is not the time to drift further to the left, to become apologists,
to succumb to the politics of appeasement and pacifism.
Liberals believe that we should spend less on defense, reduce our
armed forces, and beg those around the world who disagree with us-
to "forgive us."
Only a strong America, united in the values of our forefathers, can
withstand the threat to our country and our way of life.
"Conservatism" is the real hope for our children and grandchildren.
Our traditional values and beliefs still resonate throughout this great
land, and will by the grace of God, save us once again.
Be "extremely" proud to be a "conservative" American.
You are in the majority according to national polls-and the big
poll on November 2 is going to conclusively prove it.
Don't blow it Maine Republicans-embrace the principles that
brought the national party great victories in the past.
LePage won the primary in a landslide-because he is
"right on the issues."
Don Roberts
Augusta
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